{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2026:ZJNWXTMVQXG55WZ4U42JETOZBB","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b39d5599ce15de57e68bf93de456667a6e443e37e634c9ac3f97d07e6421c4d2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-07T15:45:09Z","title_canon_sha256":"b4d739ed5919c050533decf280e6ee3394091375e27de8109dc61293f3f2ef8c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.08692","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"2606.08692","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"2606.08692v1","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.2606.08692","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"ZJNWXTMVQXG5","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"ZJNWXTMVQXG55WZ4","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"ZJNWXTMV","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:7b125e4e6d92f61205ea5537cdf47b3da2a88786909cf4c932b0f76c45acf412","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"integrity":{"available":true,"clean":true,"detectors_run":[],"endpoint":"/pith/2606.08692/integrity.json","findings":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938","summary":{"advisory":0,"by_detector":{},"critical":0,"informational":0}},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"B\\\"uhlmann--Straub (B-S) credibility assigns each account a weight $Z_i = E_i/(E_i+K)$, where $K$ is a single portfolio-wide ratio. The formula assumes $K$ is the same for every account regardless of size, history length, or volatility, and that recent and older years carry equal weight. On a held-out US commercial auto dataset these assumptions fail: standard B-S applied to 96 companies produces a calibration slope of 29 for small accounts, a signature of severe under-crediting.\n  We propose a joint framework that retains B-S interpretability while addressing these limitations. The credibilit","authors_text":"Jake Morris","cross_cats":[],"headline":"","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-07T15:45:09Z","title":"Logistic Credibility with Temporal Decay: Extending B\\\"uhlmann--Straub for Commercial Lines"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.08692","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:b7edc338001aef99bb35b868c9fa14787f44fdff0a8598b0e6b37b61c3076905","target":"record","created_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"b39d5599ce15de57e68bf93de456667a6e443e37e634c9ac3f97d07e6421c4d2","cross_cats_sorted":[],"license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2026-06-07T15:45:09Z","title_canon_sha256":"b4d739ed5919c050533decf280e6ee3394091375e27de8109dc61293f3f2ef8c"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"2606.08692","kind":"arxiv","version":1}},"canonical_sha256":"ca5b6bcd9585cddedb3ca734924dd9084c58f00b509f4becc3b329b881c2e802","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"ca5b6bcd9585cddedb3ca734924dd9084c58f00b509f4becc3b329b881c2e802","first_computed_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47.614169Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47.614169Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"5JSrGSPsQ28KpgJ7LOWurYix0PrsIlJX3dX2wlViEpuUy7JQ7LMHJ0zsRryB9ajiE5Xy2n8XjpaJl0wxt4CNAQ==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-06-09T01:05:47.614774Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"2606.08692","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":1}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:b7edc338001aef99bb35b868c9fa14787f44fdff0a8598b0e6b37b61c3076905","sha256:7b125e4e6d92f61205ea5537cdf47b3da2a88786909cf4c932b0f76c45acf412"],"state_sha256":"4ce224fce552babd419210772bafc89cea4deecff5bc9e0d19d47812a0cdfeef"}