{"bundle_type":"pith_open_graph_bundle","bundle_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU","short_pith_number":"pith:ZJVRH433","canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"11f29f3c873ac864fcc99101fad3121975da6e4d0880d3c9a839a04378bca310","abstract_canon_sha256":"7d13d3bca1d5c79884030a036029b0bc44e366a9efaeb0dce9cd61486b835eb4"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ca6b13f37be801f885577ad21e995d25150643ba4d72ab8029e2ee9abadc1b0a","source":{"kind":"arxiv","id":"1809.07394","version":3},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1809.07394","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1809.07394v3","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1809.07394","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"ZJVRH4335AA7","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"ZJVRH4335AA7RBKX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"ZJVRH433","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"}],"events":[{"event_type":"record_created","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU","target":"record","payload":{"canonical_record":{"source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"metadata":{"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"title_canon_sha256":"11f29f3c873ac864fcc99101fad3121975da6e4d0880d3c9a839a04378bca310","abstract_canon_sha256":"7d13d3bca1d5c79884030a036029b0bc44e366a9efaeb0dce9cd61486b835eb4"},"schema_version":"1.0"},"canonical_sha256":"ca6b13f37be801f885577ad21e995d25150643ba4d72ab8029e2ee9abadc1b0a","receipt":{"kind":"pith_receipt","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484543Z","signature_b64":"QYwMMRraRPVosS0A9VIS0QhYIIhV0KejNUWWMVHNcg6tQbQ8AbyFZ3RA7SOPk/W7A9kRW2ae1/tz798kQ015Cg==","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","receipt_version":"0.3","canonical_sha256":"ca6b13f37be801f885577ad21e995d25150643ba4d72ab8029e2ee9abadc1b0a","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484070Z","signature_status":"signed_v1","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484070Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"source_kind":"arxiv","source_id":"1809.07394","source_version":3,"attestation_state":"computed"},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"ITezSXiZHnsvVT+TUyliK+pdos/FRicQlGw1GUS/Pe+8qs8pyhsJ98yYO8c2o4kz0jjaEoWDiaL7f0at8WI8DA==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-03T02:15:24.409386Z"},"content_sha256":"2bfe475003e879d9fb7f8263db60dc366f21e5d98a3a3215e72da8e2712153e5","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:2bfe475003e879d9fb7f8263db60dc366f21e5d98a3a3215e72da8e2712153e5"},{"event_type":"graph_snapshot","subject_pith_number":"pith:2018:ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU","target":"graph","payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"paper":{"title":"Improving Subseasonal Forecasting in the Western U.S. with Machine Learning","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Jessica Hwang, Judah Cohen, Karl Pfeiffer, Lester Mackey, Paulo Orenstein","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","abstract_excerpt":"Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launched the Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, a year-long real-time forecasting challenge in which participants aimed to skillfully predict temperature and precipitation in the western U.S. two to four weeks and four to six weeks in advance. Here we present and evaluate our machine "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"},"verdict_id":null},"signer":{"signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z","supersedes":[],"prev_event":null,"signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"1XlAsAlwRFz441mLWW2mlmrfSiGJ+lLfhrBXEW81CbY8IJShW8YisYVdjd+WL4JkPFx4mp16sKPxVZxKCFXBCQ==","signed_message":"open_graph_event_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-03T02:15:24.409744Z"},"content_sha256":"016c5f0fa34c4c1615bd0868e4ec2e5b8c3cfab546a321aa308301dfc807af57","schema_version":"1.0","event_id":"sha256:016c5f0fa34c4c1615bd0868e4ec2e5b8c3cfab546a321aa308301dfc807af57"}],"timestamp_proofs":[],"mirror_hints":[{"mirror_type":"https","name":"Pith Resolver","base_url":"https://pith.science","bundle_url":"https://pith.science/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/bundle.json","state_url":"https://pith.science/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/state.json","well_known_bundle_url":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/bundle.json","status":"primary"}],"public_keys":[{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","algorithm":"ed25519","format":"raw","public_key_b64":"stVStoiQhXFxp4s2pdzPNoqVNBMojDU/fJ2db5S3CbM=","public_key_hex":"b2d552b68890857171a78b36a5dccf368a953413288c353f7c9d9d6f94b709b3","fingerprint_sha256_b32_first128bits":"RVFV5Z2OI2J3ZUO7ERDEBCYNKS","fingerprint_sha256_hex":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","rotates_at":null,"url":"https://pith.science/pith-signing-key.json","notes":"Pith uses this Ed25519 key to sign canonical record SHA-256 digests. Verify with: ed25519_verify(public_key, message=canonical_sha256_bytes, signature=base64decode(signature_b64))."}],"merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","built_at":"2026-06-03T02:15:24Z","links":{"resolver":"https://pith.science/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU","bundle":"https://pith.science/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/bundle.json","state":"https://pith.science/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/state.json","well_known_bundle":"https://pith.science/.well-known/pith/ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU/bundle.json"},"state":{"state_type":"pith_open_graph_state","state_version":"1.0","pith_number":"pith:2018:ZJVRH4335AA7RBKXPLJB5GK5EU","merge_version":"pith-open-graph-merge-v1","event_count":2,"valid_event_count":2,"invalid_event_count":0,"equivocation_count":0,"current":{"canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7d13d3bca1d5c79884030a036029b0bc44e366a9efaeb0dce9cd61486b835eb4","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"11f29f3c873ac864fcc99101fad3121975da6e4d0880d3c9a839a04378bca310"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"source_aliases":[{"alias_kind":"arxiv","alias_value":"1809.07394","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"arxiv_version","alias_value":"1809.07394v3","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"doi","alias_value":"10.48550/arxiv.1809.07394","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_12","alias_value":"ZJVRH4335AA7","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_16","alias_value":"ZJVRH4335AA7RBKX","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"},{"alias_kind":"pith_short_8","alias_value":"ZJVRH433","created_at":"2026-05-18T12:33:07Z"}],"graph_snapshots":[{"event_id":"sha256:016c5f0fa34c4c1615bd0868e4ec2e5b8c3cfab546a321aa308301dfc807af57","target":"graph","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"graph_snapshot":{"author_claims":{"count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","strong_count":0},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"paper":{"abstract_excerpt":"Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launched the Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, a year-long real-time forecasting challenge in which participants aimed to skillfully predict temperature and precipitation in the western U.S. two to four weeks and four to six weeks in advance. Here we present and evaluate our machine ","authors_text":"Jessica Hwang, Judah Cohen, Karl Pfeiffer, Lester Mackey, Paulo Orenstein","cross_cats":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"headline":"","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","title":"Improving Subseasonal Forecasting in the Western U.S. with Machine Learning"},"references":{"count":0,"internal_anchors":0,"resolved_work":0,"sample":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"created_at":null,"id":null,"model_set":{},"one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"pith_extraction_headline":"","strongest_claim":"","weakest_assumption":""}},"verdict_id":null}}],"author_attestations":[],"timestamp_anchors":[],"storage_attestations":[],"citation_signatures":[],"replication_records":[],"corrections":[],"mirror_hints":[],"record_created":{"event_id":"sha256:2bfe475003e879d9fb7f8263db60dc366f21e5d98a3a3215e72da8e2712153e5","target":"record","created_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22Z","signer":{"key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signer_id":"pith.science","signer_type":"pith_registry"},"payload":{"attestation_state":"computed","canonical_record":{"metadata":{"abstract_canon_sha256":"7d13d3bca1d5c79884030a036029b0bc44e366a9efaeb0dce9cd61486b835eb4","cross_cats_sorted":["cs.CY","stat.ML"],"license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","primary_cat":"stat.AP","submitted_at":"2018-09-19T20:08:26Z","title_canon_sha256":"11f29f3c873ac864fcc99101fad3121975da6e4d0880d3c9a839a04378bca310"},"schema_version":"1.0","source":{"id":"1809.07394","kind":"arxiv","version":3}},"canonical_sha256":"ca6b13f37be801f885577ad21e995d25150643ba4d72ab8029e2ee9abadc1b0a","receipt":{"algorithm":"ed25519","builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1","canonical_sha256":"ca6b13f37be801f885577ad21e995d25150643ba4d72ab8029e2ee9abadc1b0a","first_computed_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484070Z","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","kind":"pith_receipt","last_reissued_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484070Z","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","receipt_version":"0.3","signature_b64":"QYwMMRraRPVosS0A9VIS0QhYIIhV0KejNUWWMVHNcg6tQbQ8AbyFZ3RA7SOPk/W7A9kRW2ae1/tz798kQ015Cg==","signature_status":"signed_v1","signed_at":"2026-05-17T23:45:22.484543Z","signed_message":"canonical_sha256_bytes"},"source_id":"1809.07394","source_kind":"arxiv","source_version":3}}},"equivocations":[],"invalid_events":[],"applied_event_ids":["sha256:2bfe475003e879d9fb7f8263db60dc366f21e5d98a3a3215e72da8e2712153e5","sha256:016c5f0fa34c4c1615bd0868e4ec2e5b8c3cfab546a321aa308301dfc807af57"],"state_sha256":"ed65bd6be766a8e033fa61c5fb26de0c2cd3991aa21c74b8e3757e30f111069f"},"bundle_signature":{"signature_status":"signed_v1","algorithm":"ed25519","key_id":"pith-v1-2026-05","public_key_fingerprint":"8d4b5ee74e4693bcd1df2446408b0d54","signature_b64":"d2sUSiuv0xY8Fj/IOGYEU2OozUyIxh8l+viethxmeianmvXhvqm50g33hUvScT6osznrUSG++eCbM/HbbxfpBA==","signed_message":"bundle_sha256_bytes","signed_at":"2026-06-03T02:15:24.411698Z","bundle_sha256":"08bf09452ab86e7b4716b9a407d20dd4d9f2966706af0a9ff43fd2c7ab7fd43c"}}