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Large Language Models as Co-Pilots for Causal Inference in Medical Studies
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The validity of medical studies based on real-world clinical data, such as observational studies, depends on critical assumptions necessary for drawing causal conclusions about medical interventions. Many published studies are flawed because they violate these assumptions and entail biases such as residual confounding, selection bias, and misalignment between treatment and measurement times. Although researchers are aware of these pitfalls, they continue to occur because anticipating and addressing them in the context of a specific study can be challenging without a large, often unwieldy, interdisciplinary team with extensive expertise. To address this expertise gap, we explore the use of large language models (LLMs) as co-pilot tools to assist researchers in identifying study design flaws that undermine the validity of causal inferences. We propose a conceptual framework for LLMs as causal co-pilots that encode domain knowledge across various fields, engaging with researchers in natural language interactions to provide contextualized assistance in study design. We provide illustrative examples of how LLMs can function as causal co-pilots, propose a structured framework for their grounding in existing causal inference frameworks, and highlight the unique challenges and opportunities in adapting LLMs for reliable use in epidemiological research.
Forward citations
Cited by 2 Pith papers
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Treatment, evidence, imitation, and chat
LLMs cannot solve the medical treatment problem through imitation alone because it requires evidence from experiments or observations, posing ethical challenges for training such systems.
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From Text to Discovery: How Large Language Models Are Accelerating and Complicating Research Across Scientific and Humanistic Disciplines
LLMs accelerate research workflows from idea generation to writing but introduce challenges like hallucination, bias, opacity, and ten systemic risks requiring new governance frameworks.
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