Pith sign in

REVIEW

Not yet reviewed by Pith; the record is open.

This paper has not been read by Pith yet. Machine review is queued; the pith claim, tier, and objections will appear here once it completes.

SPECIMEN: schema-true, not a live event

T0 review · schema-true

One-sentence machine reading of the paper's core claim.

pith:XXXXXXXX · record.json · timestamp

arxiv 2505.21278 v1 pith:WQCSQB53 submitted 2025-05-27 econ.EM

Conditional Method Confidence Set

classification econ.EM
keywords conditionalcmcsconfidenceproposedeconomicempiricalevaluationforecast
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal T4 reserved
0 comments
read the original abstract

This paper proposes a Conditional Method Confidence Set (CMCS) which allows to select the best subset of forecasting methods with equal predictive ability conditional on a specific economic regime. The test resembles the Model Confidence Set by Hansen et al. (2011) and is adapted for conditional forecast evaluation. We show the asymptotic validity of the proposed test and illustrate its properties in a simulation study. The proposed testing procedure is particularly suitable for stress-testing of financial risk models required by the regulators. We showcase the empirical relevance of the CMCS using the stress-testing scenario of Expected Shortfall. The empirical evidence suggests that the proposed CMCS procedure can be used as a robust tool for forecast evaluation of market risk models for different economic regimes.

discussion (0)

Sign in with ORCID, Apple, or X to comment. Anyone can read and Pith papers without signing in.