In multistage SI(k)R models, the relationship between prevalence peak and weighted stage functional maxima varies with scaling of progression rates, converging under Erlang scaling to a delay model that justifies the factor-two approximation with error bounds and corrections.
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A nine-compartment nonlinear model with two viral strains and PCHIP-based time-varying parameters is calibrated to Italian COVID-19 third-wave data, achieving high R^2 fits and proving analytical stability properties.
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A Nine-Compartment Nonlinear Epidemic Model with Spline-Based Identification of Time-Varying Transmission and Vaccination Dynamics: Application to the COVID-19 Third Wave in Italy
A nine-compartment nonlinear model with two viral strains and PCHIP-based time-varying parameters is calibrated to Italian COVID-19 third-wave data, achieving high R^2 fits and proving analytical stability properties.