Conditionally on sparse 'strange' newforms, the largest prime order of rational torsion on elliptic curves over degree-d fields is at most 3d+1 for large even d and o(d) for odd d.
Counting modular forms by rationality field
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abstract
We investigate the distribution of degrees and rationality fields of weight 2 newforms. In particular, we give heuristic upper bounds on how often degree $d$ rationality fields occur for squarefree levels, and predict finiteness if $d \ge 7$. When $d=2$, we make predictions about how frequently specific quadratic fields occur, prove lower bounds, and conjecture that $\mathbb{Q}(\sqrt 5)$ is the most common quadratic rationality field.
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Prime order torsion on elliptic curves over number fields. Part I: Asymptotics
Conditionally on sparse 'strange' newforms, the largest prime order of rational torsion on elliptic curves over degree-d fields is at most 3d+1 for large even d and o(d) for odd d.