OpenMarket releases the first public millisecond-level Polymarket–Binance paired corpus and shows that a multivariate walk-forward model does not beat the market's own mid out-of-sample.
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
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OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research
OpenMarket releases the first public millisecond-level Polymarket–Binance paired corpus and shows that a multivariate walk-forward model does not beat the market's own mid out-of-sample.