LLMs categorize rather than forecast conflict escalation across media coverage tiers, matching trivial baselines while a no-country logistic regression achieves higher F1 on a 660-case test set.
Combining Transformer-Based Actor Embeddings with
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The Limits of LLM Forecasting: Parametric Knowledge Gaps Across Conflict Zones
LLMs categorize rather than forecast conflict escalation across media coverage tiers, matching trivial baselines while a no-country logistic regression achieves higher F1 on a 660-case test set.