First-year DESI BAO data are consistent with flat LambdaCDM and, when combined with CMB, show a 2.5-3.9 sigma preference for evolving dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0) that strengthens with certain supernova datasets.
Taking Bigger Metropolis Steps by Dragging Fast Variables
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abstract
I show how Markov chain sampling with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can be modified so as to take bigger steps when the distribution being sampled from has the characteristic that its density can be quickly recomputed for a new point if this point differs from a previous point only with respect to a subset of 'fast' variables. I show empirically that when using this method, the efficiency of sampling for the remaining 'slow' variables can approach what would be possible using Metropolis updates based on the marginal distribution for the slow variables.
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Using idealized synthetic data, knowing the true continuum in Lyα forest auto- and cross-correlations reduces uncertainties on the AP parameter and Ω_m by ~10%, with extension to 240 h^{-1}Mpc scales adding up to ~15% further improvement equivalent to a 40% larger survey area.
Bayesian evidence from DESI DR2 BAO, Planck+ACT CMB, and multiple supernova samples favors thawing quintessence over a cosmological constant.
Non-minimally coupled quintessence resolves the Planck-DESI Ω_m tension at >3σ while the effective equation of state stays above w=-1 and other tensions on neutrino mass and growth rate are relieved.
GetDist implements boundary-corrected KDE with automatic smoothing for analyzing weighted and correlated Monte Carlo samples, plus plotting and diagnostic tools.
Extended analysis of DESI DR2 data confirms robust evidence for dynamical dark energy with phantom crossing preference, stable under parametric and non-parametric modeling.
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Resolving the Planck-DESI tension by nonminimally coupled quintessence
Non-minimally coupled quintessence resolves the Planck-DESI Ω_m tension at >3σ while the effective equation of state stays above w=-1 and other tensions on neutrino mass and growth rate are relieved.
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Extended Dark Energy analysis using DESI DR2 BAO measurements
Extended analysis of DESI DR2 data confirms robust evidence for dynamical dark energy with phantom crossing preference, stable under parametric and non-parametric modeling.