Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
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DDTree builds a draft tree from a block diffusion drafter using a best-first heap on its output probabilities and verifies the tree in one target-model pass via an ancestor-only attention mask, increasing average accepted tokens per round.
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Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence
Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
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Accelerating Speculative Decoding with Block Diffusion Draft Trees
DDTree builds a draft tree from a block diffusion drafter using a best-first heap on its output probabilities and verifies the tree in one target-model pass via an ancestor-only attention mask, increasing average accepted tokens per round.