Calibrated probabilistic projections place 2018-2100 CO2 emissions most likely between 700 and 1800 GtC, with SSP5-RCP8.5 as a below-1% tail risk under baseline policies.
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Probabilistic Projections of Baseline 21st Century CO$_2$ Emissions Using a Simple Calibrated Integrated Assessment Model
Calibrated probabilistic projections place 2018-2100 CO2 emissions most likely between 700 and 1800 GtC, with SSP5-RCP8.5 as a below-1% tail risk under baseline policies.