Hierarchical Bayesian inference on GWTC-5.0 constrains the memory enhancement factor to 0.26 with large uncertainties consistent with the GR value of 1 and forecasts that 2000 detections are needed for a 1σ constraint away from zero.
High-powered Gravitational News
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abstract
We describe the computation of the Bondi news for gravitational radiation. We have implemented a computer code for this problem. We discuss the theory behind it as well as the results of validation tests. Our approach uses the compactified null cone formalism, with the computational domain extending to future null infinity and with a worldtube as inner boundary. We calculate the appropriate full Einstein equations in computational eth form in (a) the interior of the computational domain and (b) on the inner boundary. At future null infinity, we transform the computed data into standard Bondi coordinates and so are able to express the news in terms of its standard $N_{+}$ and $N_{\times}$ polarization components. The resulting code is stable and second-order convergent. It runs successfully even in the highly nonlinear case, and has been tested with the news as high as 400, which represents a gravitational radiation power of about $10^{13}M_{\odot}/sec$.
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Constraining Gravitational Wave Memory with Hierarchical Inference
Hierarchical Bayesian inference on GWTC-5.0 constrains the memory enhancement factor to 0.26 with large uncertainties consistent with the GR value of 1 and forecasts that 2000 detections are needed for a 1σ constraint away from zero.