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−p2∆ 2 1 =pσ2 +p(1 −p)∆ 2 1 Given that it exists, the inverse of the 2 × 2 matrix Σ is given by Σ −1 = 1 det(Σ)   Σ 22 −Σ 12 −Σ 12 Σ 11  , 42 with det(Σ) = (1 −p)pσ2( (1 −p)∆ 2 1 +p∆ 2 2 +σ2)

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econ.EM 1

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2025 1

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CONDITIONAL 1

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Conditional Method Confidence Set

econ.EM · 2025-05-27 · conditional · novelty 5.0

A statewise extension of the Model Confidence Set is proposed and shown to be asymptotically valid, selecting best forecasting methods per economic regime.

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  • Conditional Method Confidence Set econ.EM · 2025-05-27 · conditional · none · ref 3

    A statewise extension of the Model Confidence Set is proposed and shown to be asymptotically valid, selecting best forecasting methods per economic regime.