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Fill-Side Behavioral Concentration on Polymarket: Identification Limits under Record-Level Attribution

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abstract

This paper studies behavioral concentration in Polymarket's public executed-fill record and formalizes what that record can and cannot identify. A pre-publication reconciliation corrects the empirical scope: the archived extraction covers the legacy CTF Exchange over Polygon blocks 86,008,447-86,107,178, approximately 25 April 2026 17:09 UTC through 28 April 2026 00:00 UTC, rather than the full 21-27 April week stated previously. It contains 13,356,931 OrderFilled records, 77,204 addresses with at least five attributed records, and 43,116 token identifiers; negative-risk markets are absent. The archived feature construction credits both maker and taker addresses on each record. This convention is not invariant to match fragmentation, and mint/burn executions do not admit a universal buyer/seller interpretation. The reported one-cluster result is therefore retained only as a null under the original record-level representation, not as evidence that the participant population is intrinsically unimodal. The concentration table is likewise attribution-weighted arithmetic under that convention. Two methodological results remain durable: public fills do not identify the quote lifecycle required to infer market making, spoofing, or strategic withdrawal; and a one-cluster result rejects density separation in an observed feature space, not latent economic heterogeneity. A match-normalized, mint-aware, multi-window replication is required before treating the cluster null or exact cohort shares as stable venue properties.

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q-fin.TR 1

years

2026 1

verdicts

CONDITIONAL 1

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Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets

q-fin.TR · 2026-08-01 · conditional · novelty 7.0

Axient clears leveraged event-position debt before finality by selling the smallest quantity whose worst-case settled proceeds cover an upper debt bound, removing terminal payout risk from the lender's loan channel within a registered operating set.

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  • Axient: Debt-Free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets q-fin.TR · 2026-08-01 · conditional · none · ref 13 · internal anchor

    Axient clears leveraged event-position debt before finality by selling the smallest quantity whose worst-case settled proceeds cover an upper debt bound, removing terminal payout risk from the lender's loan channel within a registered operating set.