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CLUE: Neural Networks Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error alignment

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abstract

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in scalability, differentiability, and generalization across domains. In this work, we introduce CLUE (Calibration via Learning Uncertainty-Error Alignment), a novel approach that explicitly aligns predicted uncertainty with observed error during training, grounded in the principle that well-calibrated models should produce uncertainty estimates that match their empirical loss. CLUE adopts a novel loss function that jointly optimizes predictive performance and calibration, using summary statistics of uncertainty and loss as proxies. The proposed method is fully differentiable, domain-agnostic, and compatible with standard training pipelines. Through extensive experiments on vision, regression, and language modeling tasks, including out-of-distribution and domain-shift scenarios, we demonstrate that CLUE achieves superior calibration quality and competitive predictive performance with respect to state-of-the-art approaches without imposing significant computational overhead.

fields

cs.LG 1

years

2025 1

verdicts

CONDITIONAL 1

representative citing papers

Uncertainty Estimation by Human Perception versus Neural Models

cs.LG · 2025-06-18 · conditional · novelty 5.0

Neural network uncertainty estimates correlate only weakly with human-perceived uncertainty on three vision benchmarks, and soft-label training improves that alignment, though the claimed calibration benefit is not measured in the paper.

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  • Uncertainty Estimation by Human Perception versus Neural Models cs.LG · 2025-06-18 · conditional · none · ref 23 · internal anchor

    Neural network uncertainty estimates correlate only weakly with human-perceived uncertainty on three vision benchmarks, and soft-label training improves that alignment, though the claimed calibration benefit is not measured in the paper.