Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Pith papers citing it
abstract
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decomposition that separates exchange-equivalent turnover from share minting and burning, and trader-level disagreement measures. Naive aggregation reports $958M of October Trump-market volume, compared with $391M under our decomposition. Market quality improved as arbitrage-deviation half-lives fell from hours to under a minute and Kyle's {\lambda} dropped from 0.53 to 0.01. During October's large-account episode, capital flowed into both sides simultaneously, consistent with heterogeneous-beliefs trading rather than one-sided manipulation. The framework generalizes to other tokenized prediction markets.
years
2026 2representative citing papers
The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.
citing papers explorer
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The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Microstructure Evidence from the Polymarket Order Book
Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
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The Signal Credibility Index for Prediction Markets: A Microstructure-Grounded Diagnostic with Weighted and Time-Varying Extensions
The Signal Credibility Index (SCI) is a microstructure diagnostic that measures signal credibility in prediction markets via persistence ratio on logit prices and flow-based concentration, with weighted and time-varying forms validated in Monte Carlo simulations.