A two-component Bayesian model, combining an asymmetric-Gaussian ILI forecast with a discrepancy term and a hospitalization regression, placed second among 21 non-ensemble models in the 2023-24 CDC FluSight challenge.
Compartmental models are standard mathematical models used for modelling disease outbreaks which may capture ILI behavior
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Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy
A two-component Bayesian model, combining an asymmetric-Gaussian ILI forecast with a discrepancy term and a hospitalization regression, placed second among 21 non-ensemble models in the 2023-24 CDC FluSight challenge.