A mod $p$ determinant criterion for Cohen--Lenstra convergence of random $p$-adic matrices with prescribed zero patterns

We study the distribution of cokernels of Haar-random matrices over the $p$-adic integers with prescribed zero patterns, motivated by the Cohen--Lenstra heuristics. A central feature of our approach is that the asymptotic cokernel distribution is governed by the reductions modulo $p$ of these matrices, viewed as random matrices over the finite field $\mathbb{F}_p$. For several families of support patterns arising from stair-shaped zero regions, including general stair-shaped patterns, band matrices, and matrices with two symmetric stair-shaped zero regions, we show that convergence of the cokernel distribution to the Cohen--Lenstra distribution is equivalent to an asymptotic nonsingularity condition over $\mathbb{F}_p$. We further propose a conjecture for general support patterns and give examples showing that analogous rank-$r$ criteria fail for $r\ge 1$.