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A Persona-based Rate Action Index

cs.MA · 2026-07-29 · conditional · novelty 6.0

FOMC member personas, built from public statements and queried with current economic conditions, produce an index that tracks the 2022-2025 federal funds rate cycle and appears to lead it by about three quarters.

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  • A Persona-based Rate Action Index cs.MA · 2026-07-29 · conditional · none · ref 1

    FOMC member personas, built from public statements and queried with current economic conditions, produce an index that tracks the 2022-2025 federal funds rate cycle and appears to lead it by about three quarters.