Introduces decision-alignment to evaluate uncertainty metrics against downstream decision utilities and proposes prior-weighted proper scoring rules that align better in benchmarks and case studies.
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Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.
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Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification
Introduces decision-alignment to evaluate uncertainty metrics against downstream decision utilities and proposes prior-weighted proper scoring rules that align better in benchmarks and case studies.
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To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection
Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.