AI infrastructure solvency requires ~2x annual token-demand growth for four years, but public trackers overstate demand and the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes due to a depreciation conveyor effect.
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Memory Scarcity, Open Models, and the Restructuring of the AI Industry, 2026-2030 -- A quantitative scenario analysis of inference economics, training-cost divergence, and infrastructure solvency
AI infrastructure solvency requires ~2x annual token-demand growth for four years, but public trackers overstate demand and the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes due to a depreciation conveyor effect.