Time delay likelihoods modeled with Gaussian processes develop a boundary-driven W-shape with a global maximum at the true delay and rises at observation window edges, misleading nested sampling and biasing H0 high.
Jeffreys, An invariant form for the prior probability in estimation problems, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London
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Global structure of the time delay likelihood
Time delay likelihoods modeled with Gaussian processes develop a boundary-driven W-shape with a global maximum at the true delay and rises at observation window edges, misleading nested sampling and biasing H0 high.