Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.
A trust crisis in simulation-based inference? Your posterior approximations can be unfaithful.Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 2022
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Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models in Epidemiological Research
Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.