Variational free-energy descent under exponential-family posteriors and priors recovers predictive-coding dynamics up to the second posterior cumulant, with local learning rules and nonlinear heterogeneous activations.
Beck, Superstatistics: theory and applications, Continuum Mech
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For Gamma-family fits to NYSE volume-price data the shape parameter follows diffusive mean-reverting dynamics while the scale parameter shows dominant jump-diffusion with elevated higher moments, and jumps explain a large share of variance; the log-normal model reverses the pattern.
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Extended predictive coding framework as variational free-energy minimisation under exponential-family assumption
Variational free-energy descent under exponential-family posteriors and priors recovers predictive-coding dynamics up to the second posterior cumulant, with local learning rules and nonlinear heterogeneous activations.
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Jump-diffusion models of parametric volume-price distributions
For Gamma-family fits to NYSE volume-price data the shape parameter follows diffusive mean-reverting dynamics while the scale parameter shows dominant jump-diffusion with elevated higher moments, and jumps explain a large share of variance; the log-normal model reverses the pattern.
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