A chi-squared tail-extrapolation method estimates global significances up to 6.6 sigma using modest toy Monte Carlo samples, validated against direct counting and the Gross-Vitells method on CDF, CMS, and ATLAS resonances.
A global significance evaluation method using simulated events
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abstract
In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find the probability of a random fluctuation in the background mimicking a real signal. As a high school summer project, we demonstrate a method with Monte Carlo simulated events to evaluate the global significance of a potential resonance with some assumptions. This method for determining significance is general and can be applied, with appropriate modification, to other resonances.
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Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method
A chi-squared tail-extrapolation method estimates global significances up to 6.6 sigma using modest toy Monte Carlo samples, validated against direct counting and the Gross-Vitells method on CDF, CMS, and ATLAS resonances.