Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.
Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims.Journal of Peace Research, 62(4):1223–1240,
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Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Conformal prediction generates valid sets of future conflict state sequences under a Markov assumption, providing robust uncertainty quantification compared to point predictions from likelihood methods.