ECI adds a smoothed error-quantification term to the online conformal update rule and proves distribution-free long-run coverage bounds, yielding tighter prediction sets on real time-series benchmarks.
Angelopoulos, Stephen Bates, Clara Fannjiang, Michael I Jordan, and Tijana Zrnic
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Error-quantified Conformal Inference for Time Series
ECI adds a smoothed error-quantification term to the online conformal update rule and proves distribution-free long-run coverage bounds, yielding tighter prediction sets on real time-series benchmarks.