Across ten years of ICPC data, Codeforces online ratings predicted World Finals rankings (tau = 0.596) better than any superregional contest, and Northern Eurasia had the strongest regional-to-superregional consistency (tau = 0.666).
In Proceedings of the 47th ACM technical symposium on computing science education (2016), pp
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Evaluating Performance Consistency in Competitive Programming: Educational Implications and Contest Design Insights
Across ten years of ICPC data, Codeforces online ratings predicted World Finals rankings (tau = 0.596) better than any superregional contest, and Northern Eurasia had the strongest regional-to-superregional consistency (tau = 0.666).