For dual-use AI, withholding helps only if it delays harmful actors more than defenders; the paper derives a substitution-rate threshold that decides when open release beats control.
The economics of AI foundation models: Openness, competition, and governance.arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.15200, 2025
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Who Does Withholding Delay? A Game-Theoretic Model of Open-Weight AI Release Under Asymmetric Proliferation
For dual-use AI, withholding helps only if it delays harmful actors more than defenders; the paper derives a substitution-rate threshold that decides when open release beats control.