Han administrative persistent entropy collapses to zero at 220 CE while geographic entropy rises to 3.065, with Wasserstein and ICT early warnings 45–50 years prior and Three Kingdoms as β1 cycles at 190 CE.
Structural Divergence of the Roman--Byzantine Trade Network, 0--1453\,CE: Persistent Homology, Topological Velocity, and Criticality Indicators of Imperial Collapse
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abstract
We extend the persistent homology analysis of~\paperone{} to the full Roman--Byzantine trade network (0--1453\,\textsc{ce}), using 2{,}599 nodes and 4{,}503 trimodal edges calibrated against the \textsc{orbis} Geospatial Network Model. Five results are reported. % (i)~The $H_t{=}0$ western sub-network result of~\paperone{} is a data-coverage artifact: with full western representation ($N_{\rm west}=987$, $\beta_1\approx52$ cycles per decade) a baseline East--West entropy gap of $+2.22$ units is present from 0\,\textsc{ce} and grows at $+3.3\times10^{-3}$\,yr$^{-1}$, predating the Theodosian partition by four centuries. % (ii)~A \emph{hub-selection artifact} in degree-heterogeneous networks can reverse the sign of the inferred Phase~III slope, requiring full-coverage or stratified sampling for reliable structural-break detection. % (iii)~Decomposing Byzantine resilience into geographic ($H_{\rm geo}$) and economic ($H_{\rm eco}$) components reveals a peak decoupling ratio $R_d = H_{\rm eco}/H_{\rm geo} = 47.7$ at 620\,\textsc{ce}, falling to 13.9 at 640\,\textsc{ce}, quantifying the McCormick--Ward-Perkins historiographical debate as a contrast between two network layers operating on different timescales. % (iv)~The inter-decade $W_2$ Wasserstein velocity identifies the Late Roman--Early Byzantine transition (495\,\textsc{ce}) as the highest topological-velocity event of the 1,453-year record; the cross-network Wasserstein ratio increases by $150$--$300\times$ after the Chrysobull of 1082\,\textsc{ce}, providing an independent diagram-space analogue of $R_d$. Both the Western collapse (476\,\textsc{ce}) and the Byzantine endpoint (1453\,\textsc{ce}) occur at $H^{\ast}\approx0.524$, interpreted as a candidate topological percolation threshold.
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Topological Signatures of Imperial Collapse and Fragmentation: Administrative Dissolution, Territorial Reorganization and Early-Warning Observables in the Han Dynasty Network (206~BCE\,--\,220~CE)
Han administrative persistent entropy collapses to zero at 220 CE while geographic entropy rises to 3.065, with Wasserstein and ICT early warnings 45–50 years prior and Three Kingdoms as β1 cycles at 190 CE.