InfoDelphi partitions evidence to induce information asymmetry in multi-agent LLM deliberation, yielding 12-18% Brier score gains and 4-8 pp accuracy gains on a 375-question benchmark.
Psychological influences on forecast bias: The impact of mood, depression, and trading performance on investor expectations
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Diverse Evidence, Better Forecasts: Multi-Agent Deliberation Under Information Asymmetry
InfoDelphi partitions evidence to induce information asymmetry in multi-agent LLM deliberation, yielding 12-18% Brier score gains and 4-8 pp accuracy gains on a 375-question benchmark.