Standard count time series models with pandemic break indicators applied to US and Italian transplant data capture COVID deviations, show deceased-donor recovery to baselines, and find auxiliary COVID covariates add negligible predictive value beyond autoregressive and calendar terms.
tscount: An R package for analysis of count time series following Generalized Linear Models.Journal of Statistical Software, 82:1–51
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Scalable model selection for count time series with structural breaks: application to solid-organ transplantation during and after COVID-19 in the USA and Italy
Standard count time series models with pandemic break indicators applied to US and Italian transplant data capture COVID deviations, show deceased-donor recovery to baselines, and find auxiliary COVID covariates add negligible predictive value beyond autoregressive and calendar terms.