When Does Value-Aware KV Eviction Help? A Fixed-Contract Diagnostic for Non-Monotone Cache Compression

Long-context LLM inference is bottlenecked by the memory and bandwidth cost of reading large KV caches during decoding. KV compression reduces this cost by keeping only part of the cache, but task accuracy alone does not identify why a selector succeeds or fails. A selector can fail at three steps: it may miss the evidence future decoding needs, give high scores to tokens that do not affect the output, or break related evidence when fitting scores into a small cache. We introduce a fixed-contract diagnostic that holds the selector's setup fixed and changes one decision slot at a time. For value ranking, the probe combines a block's attention mass with the estimated output change from removing it. On LongBench across three models and two budgets, the probe is positive on 72.6% of positive-margin cells and 32.4% of nonpositive-margin cells. NeedleBench M-RT at 32k and a RULER 8k check probe support closure under branched retrieval, and a 264-cell sign evaluation separates support recovery and output-value ranking from leverage effects near the boundary. The resulting order is to recover decode-side evidence, rank its output value, and preserve coupled evidence during projection.