GIANTS-4B, trained with RL on a new 17k-example benchmark of parent-to-child paper insights, achieves 34% relative improvement over gemini-3-pro in LM-judge similarity and is rated higher-impact by a citation predictor.
Prescience: A benchmark for forecasting scientific contributions
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
2
Pith papers citing it
years
2026 2verdicts
UNVERDICTED 2representative citing papers
Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
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GIANTS: Generative Insight Anticipation from Scientific Literature
GIANTS-4B, trained with RL on a new 17k-example benchmark of parent-to-child paper insights, achieves 34% relative improvement over gemini-3-pro in LM-judge similarity and is rated higher-impact by a citation predictor.
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Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence
Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.