Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation
2 Pith papers cite this work. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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In dynamic trading models, κ-separable securities characterize information aggregation; decreasing signal costs leads to discontinuous aggregation improvement for almost all securities irrespective of initial information.
citing papers explorer
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The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Microstructure Evidence from the Polymarket Order Book
Empirical study of Polymarket order book data yields eight stylized facts on spreads, depth, and trading, plus evidence that public feeds infer trade direction accurately only 59% of the time, requiring on-chain records.
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Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition
In dynamic trading models, κ-separable securities characterize information aggregation; decreasing signal costs leads to discontinuous aggregation improvement for almost all securities irrespective of initial information.