A simulation model concludes that a Chinese rare-earth export ban would create a US military technology gap in 3 to 5 years and systemic capability lag in 8 to 12 years, with annual losses of 35 to 40 billion dollars.
technology generation gap + energy dominance + systemic closure
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Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection
A simulation model concludes that a Chinese rare-earth export ban would create a US military technology gap in 3 to 5 years and systemic capability lag in 8 to 12 years, with annual losses of 35 to 40 billion dollars.