An empirically calibrated shipping model shows rerouting reduces some immediate port losses but raises cumulative arrival shortfalls that grow with closure duration, at 3.0% per day for Suez and 7.7% for triple chokepoint closures.
Nowcasting global trade from space.IMF Working Papers, 2025(093):37, 2025
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Adaptive rerouting reshapes impacts of maritime chokepoint disruptions
An empirically calibrated shipping model shows rerouting reduces some immediate port losses but raises cumulative arrival shortfalls that grow with closure duration, at 3.0% per day for Suez and 7.7% for triple chokepoint closures.