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Data analysis recipes: Probability calculus for inference

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abstract

In this pedagogical text aimed at those wanting to start thinking about or brush up on probabilistic inference, I review the rules by which probability distribution functions can (and cannot) be combined. I connect these rules to the operations performed in probabilistic data analysis. Dimensional analysis is emphasized as a valuable tool for helping to construct non-wrong probabilistic statements. The applications of probability calculus in constructing likelihoods, marginalized likelihoods, posterior probabilities, and posterior predictions are all discussed.

fields

astro-ph.HE 1

years

2019 1

verdicts

CONDITIONAL 1

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  • The 31-year Rotation History of the Millisecond Pulsar J1939+2134 (B1937+21) astro-ph.HE · 2019-08-08 · conditional · none · ref 16 · internal anchor

    Using 31 years of combined public timing data for PSR J1939+2134, the paper reports a nearly sinusoidal timing variation with a period close to the data span, which it interprets as either a moon-sized planet at about 11 AU or slow precession.