For a mock 10^4-event Einstein Telescope dark siren catalogue, neural ratio estimation posteriors on (H0, Omega_m) match hierarchical Bayesian inference, and the same simulation-based pipeline extends to joint cosmology-plus-star-formation-rate inference at negligible extra cost.
Abundance of damped Lyman-alpha absorbers in cosmological SPH simulations
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abstract
We use cosmological smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the Lambda cold dark matter (CDM) model to study the abundance of damped Lyman-alpha absorbers (DLAs) in the redshift range z=0-4.5. We compute the cumulative DLA abundance by using the relation between DLA cross-section and the total halo mass inferred from the simulations. Our approach includes a phenomenological model of galactic wind. We employ the ``conservative entropy'' formulation of SPH, and utilise a series of simulations of varying box-size and particle number to isolate the impact of numerical resolution on our results. We show that the DLA abundance was overestimated in previous studies for three reasons: (1) the overcooling of gas occurring with non-conservative formulations of SPH, (2) a lack of numerical resolution, and (3) an inadequate treatment of feedback. Our new results for the total neutral hydrogen mass density, DLA abundance, and column density distribution function all agree reasonably well with observational estimates at redshift z=3, indicating that DLAs arise naturally from radiatively cooled gas in dark matter haloes that form in a Lambda CDM universe. Our simulations suggest a moderate decrease in DLA abundance by roughly a factor of two from z=4.5 to 3, consistent with observations. A significant decline in abundance from z=3 to z=1, followed by weak evolution from z=1 to z=0, is also indicated, but our low-redshift results need to be interpreted with caution because they are based on coarser simulations than the ones employed at high redshift. Our highest resolution simulation also suggests that the halo mass-scale below which DLAs do not exist is slightly above 10^8 Msun/h at z=3-4, somewhat lower than previously estimated. (abridged)
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Cosmology in the Einstein Telescope era: comparing traditional and simulation-based methods for population inference
For a mock 10^4-event Einstein Telescope dark siren catalogue, neural ratio estimation posteriors on (H0, Omega_m) match hierarchical Bayesian inference, and the same simulation-based pipeline extends to joint cosmology-plus-star-formation-rate inference at negligible extra cost.