Random Weierstrass equations over Z_p have Haar-measure densities for admitting a Q_p-rational 3-torsion point or 3-isogeny given by exact rational functions depending on p modulo 3.
Shadow line distributions
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abstract
Let $E$ be an elliptic curve over $\mathbb{Q}$ with Mordell--Weil rank $2$ and $p$ be an odd prime of good ordinary reduction. For every imaginary quadratic field $K$ satisfying the Heegner hypothesis, there is (subject to the Shafarevich--Tate conjecture) a line, i.e., a free $\mathbb{Z}_p$-submodule of rank $1$, in $ E(K)\otimes \mathbb{Z}_p$ given by universal norms coming from the Mordell--Weil groups of subfields of the anticyclotomic $\mathbb{Z}_p$-extension of $K$; we call it the {\it shadow line}. When the twist of $E$ by $K$ has analytic rank $1$, the shadow line is conjectured to lie in $E(\mathbb{Q})\otimes\mathbb{Z}_p$; we verify this computationally in all our examples. We study the distribution of shadow lines in $E(\mathbb{Q})\otimes\mathbb{Z}_p$ as $K$ varies, framing conjectures based on the computations we have made.
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The density of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}_p$ with a rational 3-torsion point or a rational 3-isogeny
Random Weierstrass equations over Z_p have Haar-measure densities for admitting a Q_p-rational 3-torsion point or 3-isogeny given by exact rational functions depending on p modulo 3.