Introduces pseudo-marginal MCMC with unbiased Poisson likelihood estimator for exact inference despite noisy collider Monte Carlo simulations.
Optimal scaling for the pseudo-marginal random walk Metropolis: insensitivity to the noise generating mechanism
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abstract
We examine the optimal scaling and the efficiency of the pseudo-marginal random walk Metropolis algorithm using a recently-derived result on the limiting efficiency as the dimension, $d\rightarrow \infty$. We prove that the optimal scaling for a given target varies by less than $20\%$ across a wide range of distributions for the noise in the estimate of the target, and that any scaling that is within $20\%$ of the optimal one will be at least $70\%$ efficient. We demonstrate that this phenomenon occurs even outside the range of distributions for which we rigorously prove it. We then conduct a simulation study on an example with $d=10$ where importance sampling is used to estimate the target density; we also examine results available from an existing simulations study with $d=5$ and where a particle filter was used. Our key conclusions are found to hold in these examples also.
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hep-ph 1years
2025 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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Bring the noise: exact inference from noisy simulations in collider physics
Introduces pseudo-marginal MCMC with unbiased Poisson likelihood estimator for exact inference despite noisy collider Monte Carlo simulations.