Conformal CUSUM can be tuned so its pre-change statistics match the ideal likelihood-ratio CUSUM exactly, giving controlled false alarms under exchangeability alone.
Conformal e-testing
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abstract
There is a useful counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, called conformal e-prediction. Conformal prediction can serve as basis for testing the assumption of exchangeability, leading to conformal testing. Similarly, conformal e-prediction can also serve as basis for testing. The resulting conformal e-testing looks very different from but inherits some strengths of conformal testing; it even has some advantages over conformal testing. In this paper we discuss systematically both strengths and limitations of conformal e-testing.
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Validity and efficiency of the conformal CUSUM procedure
Conformal CUSUM can be tuned so its pre-change statistics match the ideal likelihood-ratio CUSUM exactly, giving controlled false alarms under exchangeability alone.