Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.
Pre- dictability of wintertime stratospheric circulation examined using a nonstationary fluctuation–dissipation relation.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(2):774– 786
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State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability
Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.