PMBA aggregates first- and higher-order beliefs to recover the true state from large populations under weak assumptions on information structures, with a linear regression reinterpretation and supporting experiment.
Consider agents i and j such that ε-independence among signals holds, i.e., for all events E, E′ ∈ F we have |P [˜si ∈ E, ˜sj ∈ E′|ω ] − PS i,ω(E)PS j,ω(E′)| ≤ ε
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The Wisdom of the Crowd and Higher-Order Beliefs
PMBA aggregates first- and higher-order beliefs to recover the true state from large populations under weak assumptions on information structures, with a linear regression reinterpretation and supporting experiment.