Market-calibrated Weibull AFT model for in-play football forecasting nearly matches Betfair accuracy (70.2% vs 70.6%) and produces 4.5% ROI in simulation against in-play odds.
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports , volume=
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Quantile-based trading strategies for battery arbitrage fail to incentivize honest probabilistic forecasts and ignore price dependence, while stochastic programs using full distributions better connect forecast accuracy to economic value.
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A market-calibrated accelerated failure time model for in-play football forecasting
Market-calibrated Weibull AFT model for in-play football forecasting nearly matches Betfair accuracy (70.2% vs 70.6%) and produces 4.5% ROI in simulation against in-play odds.
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Probabilistic Forecasting for Day-ahead Electricity Prices, Battery Trading Strategies and the Economic Evaluation of Predictive Accuracy
Quantile-based trading strategies for battery arbitrage fail to incentivize honest probabilistic forecasts and ignore price dependence, while stochastic programs using full distributions better connect forecast accuracy to economic value.