Time delay likelihoods modeled with Gaussian processes develop a boundary-driven W-shape with a global maximum at the true delay and rises at observation window edges, misleading nested sampling and biasing H0 high.
Buchner, Nested sampling methods, Statistic Surveys 17, 169 (2023)
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Global structure of the time delay likelihood
Time delay likelihoods modeled with Gaussian processes develop a boundary-driven W-shape with a global maximum at the true delay and rises at observation window edges, misleading nested sampling and biasing H0 high.