An autoregressive model with promotion-state dummy variables outperforms judgmentally adjusted forecasts in two FMCG case studies, but with weak statistical validation.
statistically sophisticated or complex methods do not necessarily produce more accurate forecasts than simpler ones
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Demand Forecasting in the Presence of Systematic Events: Cases in Capturing Sales Promotions
An autoregressive model with promotion-state dummy variables outperforms judgmentally adjusted forecasts in two FMCG case studies, but with weak statistical validation.