A sequential test based on ratios of scoring rules is shown to be a generalized e-value, yielding finite-sample error control for forecast method selection.
Multiple Testing in Generalized Universal Inference
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abstract
Compared to p-values, e-values provably guarantee safe, valid inference. If the goal is to test multiple hypotheses simultaneously, one can construct e-values for each individual test and then use the recently developed e-BH procedure to properly correct for multiplicity. Standard e-value constructions, however, require distributional assumptions that may not be justifiable. This paper demonstrates that the generalized universal inference framework can be used along with the e-BH procedure to control frequentist error rates in multiple testing when the quantities of interest are minimizers of risk functions, thereby avoiding the need for distributional assumptions. We demonstrate the validity and power of this approach via a simulation study, testing the significance of a predictor in quantile regression.
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Sequential Scoring Rule Evaluation for Forecast Method Selection
A sequential test based on ratios of scoring rules is shown to be a generalized e-value, yielding finite-sample error control for forecast method selection.