Semi-Markov models with particle Monte Carlo inference capture persistent transmission regimes in epidemics and yield more stable estimates from UK COVID-19 cases plus deaths than deaths alone.
SMC 2 : an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models
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Semi-Markov Models with Particle-Based Bayesian Inference for Epidemics
Semi-Markov models with particle Monte Carlo inference capture persistent transmission regimes in epidemics and yield more stable estimates from UK COVID-19 cases plus deaths than deaths alone.