Using 2,500 tournament snapshots and 33,478 players, the paper reports that the independent chip model beats a simple baseline and systematically overestimates short stacks while underestimating large stacks.
Aivat: a new variance reduction technique for agent evaluation in imperfect information games,
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Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model
Using 2,500 tournament snapshots and 33,478 players, the paper reports that the independent chip model beats a simple baseline and systematically overestimates short stacks while underestimating large stacks.